The European Jet Fuel Crisis: Why Air Freight is Soaring and How to Shift to Ocean

The global supply chain is facing a severe shockwave originating from the Middle East, and its impact is hitting the skies over Europe with unprecedented force. Following the outbreak of the US-Iran war in late February 2026, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a massive disruption in global energy markets. While much of the focus has been on crude oil and ocean shipping reroutes, a quieter but equally devastating crisis is unfolding: the rapid depletion of Europe’s jet fuel reserves.

For importers and supply chain managers, this energy crisis translates directly into skyrocketing air freight costs and shrinking cargo capacity. As airlines scramble to secure fuel and maintain margins, shippers are being forced to reevaluate their logistics strategies. The solution for many lies in a strategic modal shift from air to maritime shipping.

The Anatomy of the Jet Fuel Shortage

The root cause of the impending air freight crisis is a severe supply bottleneck. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical artery for global energy, handling approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply [1]. More importantly for the aviation sector, Europe relies on the Middle East for roughly 60% of its external jet fuel imports [2].

With commercial shipping transits through the Strait plummeting by 95% since the conflict began, that vital supply line has been severed [3]. The International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a stark warning in mid-April 2026, with Executive Director Fatih Birol stating that Europe had “maybe six weeks or so” of jet fuel left [1].

The data supports this alarming forecast. Jet fuel stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) refining and storage hub- the primary distribution point for Northern Europe- plummeted to around 552,000 metric tons by late April, the lowest level recorded since the onset of the pandemic in early 2020 [4].

This scarcity has driven prices to historic highs. Delivered jet fuel cargo prices in Northwest Europe have averaged $1,557 per tonne since the conflict began, sitting roughly 90% above the five-year average [5]. In early April, prices briefly spiked to an all-time high of $1,838 per tonne [6]. Because fuel accounts for approximately 27% of an airline’s operating expenses, these increases are immediately passed down the supply chain [3].

The Impact on Air Freight Rates and Capacity

The combination of fuel scarcity and exorbitant prices is squeezing air cargo capacity and driving up rates across the board. Airlines are implementing aggressive fuel surcharges and, in some cases, canceling flights entirely because they are no longer financially viable to operate [1].

The International Rescue Committee (IRC), which relies heavily on air freight for humanitarian aid, reported in May 2026 that air freight capacity on key routes is down by up to 50%, while costs have surged by 40%-62% compared to the previous year [7]. Commercial spot rates reflect a similar reality. According to Xeneta, airfreight spot rates from South Asia to Europe are up 105% year-over-year, while Europe to the Middle East rates have climbed 87% [3].

Even if a lasting ceasefire is achieved and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, relief will not be immediate. The IEA notes that over 80 key energy assets in the region have been damaged, with more than a third severely damaged [1]. Rebuilding the jet fuel supply chain and refinery output will take months, if not years, meaning elevated air freight costs are likely here to stay for the foreseeable future.

The Strategic Shift to Maritime Shipping

Faced with unsustainable air freight costs, savvy importers are accelerating a modal shift toward ocean freight. While maritime shipping is dealing with its own challenges- namely, the 10-to-14-day delays caused by rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope- the economics heavily favor the ocean [3].

Unlike the aviation sector, the ocean freight industry is currently characterized by structural overcapacity. An estimated 10 million TEU (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units) of new container ship capacity is entering the market, providing a buffer against the disruptions caused by the longer African transit routes [8]. This excess capacity means that while ocean rates have seen some upward pressure due to the crisis, they remain vastly more economical and stable than air freight.

Industries Primed for the Modal Shift

Not all cargo can be seamlessly transitioned from air to sea. However, several industries are uniquely positioned to benefit from this shift:

Who Benefits from the Transition?

The shift from air to ocean creates distinct winners in the logistics ecosystem. Ocean carriers stand to benefit significantly, as the influx of cargo helps absorb the massive new vessel capacity entering the market. Freight forwarders that offer robust multimodal solutions- such as Sea-Air hybrid routes that combine fast ocean transit to a midway hub with air uplift for the final leg- are seeing massive demand. These hybrid solutions can cut transit times by 50% compared to pure ocean freight while remaining significantly cheaper than direct air cargo [9].

Finally, importers who successfully adapt their supply chains stand to gain a massive competitive advantage. By improving demand forecasting, increasing safety stock, and utilizing platforms like eezyimport to streamline the customs clearance process for ocean arrivals, businesses can protect their margins from the volatility of the aviation fuel market.

5 Must-Do Steps to Manage the Modal Shift

If your business relies on air freight and is feeling the squeeze of the European jet fuel crisis, taking immediate action is critical. Here is a guide to managing the transition to ocean freight:

1. Audit Your SKU Velocity: Identify which products truly require the speed of air freight (e.g., high-margin, highly perishable, or critical shortage items) and which can tolerate the extended transit times of ocean shipping.
2. Adjust Inventory Buffers: Because ocean freight around the Cape of Good Hope adds 10-14 days to transit times, you must recalculate your safety stock levels to prevent stockouts during the longer journey.
3. Explore Multimodal Options: Work with your freight forwarder to investigate Sea-Air hybrid solutions. These can offer a middle ground, providing faster transit than pure ocean freight without the exorbitant cost of direct air cargo.
4. Enhance Demand Forecasting: The longer lead times associated with ocean freight require more accurate, longer-term demand planning. Utilize historical data and predictive analytics to order inventory further in advance.
5. Streamline Customs Clearance: Ocean freight involves different documentation and entry processes than air cargo. Ensure your Importer Security Filing (ISF) and Entry Summary (7501) processes are automated and error-free to prevent costly delays at the port of discharge.

The era of cheap, abundant air freight has been grounded by geopolitical reality. As Europe grapples with its jet fuel shortage, the importers who survive and thrive will be those who quickly and intelligently navigate the shift back to the sea.